Forecast Text

 




 

November 30, 2021

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General Ideas:

Little change in the forecast for the next 3-4 days, with clipper systems bringing light snows and even some mixed precip to the far north through Friday. As we work through the weekend and into early next week, the models are both onto the idea of snows to expand south and even intensify.

1-4 Day Forecast:

Things will be fairly quiet across the region today and then by tonight, an area of light snows will work across northern MN and bring a couple of inches of snow. That area will then go on to bring generally less than an inch to the UP and far northern lower MI tomorrow, with an area of 1-2″ possible in the north central UP. There is still some mixed precip that is possible with that activity as well.

A very weak system is seen for later Thursday and early Friday, bringing mainly a trace or less of snow to the far northern Midwest.  

Temps will run near average in the next 4 days, with the freeze line running across the far northern Midwest or even a bit north of it.

5-10 Day Forecast:

The forecast for this period still has a lot going on in it. The models have come into better agreement on the ideas for  snows on Saturday and Sunday, although there are also some differences. The idea calls for a “Rockies Low” to track from western SD by late Saturday to around central IN by Sunday evening. The low is indicated to have a fair amount of moisture to work with as well as a healthy amount of energy. Thus totals of 4-8″ look to be fairly widespread within the main band of snow with it. I will certainly not rule out the chance for some 8″ totals to occur as well.

The models do differ a little on the placement of the main band of snow with it, but not enough to make a huge difference. The European and US models see the main band of snows ending at 7 am Sunday to fall across much of ND and possibly into west central MN. For the time period 7 am Sunday to 7 am Monday, the heaviest snows are seen for most of WI, and into the southern 2/3rd of lower MI. Lighter totals of 2-5″ are seen for most of the UP and the northern 1/3rd of lower MI. Wrap around activity could bring 1-3″ to far northern sections of IL, IN and OH. Keep in mind that there is still time for further adjustments to be made to both the amounts and placement of snow with this system, but the fact that both models are onto the same general idea gives is good confidence for being 5-6 days out in the forecast.

The models then begin to diverge in their thinking for the first half of next week. The US model indicates a fairly strong NW flow to build in behind the weekend low, bringing some fairly healthy LES to the snowbelts of the UP and  NWL MI Monday, with a system to bring some light snows to areas mainly north of I-80 Tuesday and Wednesday. The European sees a strong clipper system to drop into western ND and northern MN by the early morning hours Tuesday and then around 300 miles to the east of Lake Superior by Wednesday. This scenario would bring snows of 6-10″ to the northern  1/2 to 2/3rd of ND, the northern 1/3rd of MN, most of the UP and possibly into extreme northern WI. LES would then kick in behind that system and bring the potential for 5″+ snows to the LES belts of the UP.

At this point, I see no reason to side with one idea over the other with regards to the forecast for the first half of next week. 

Temps for the weekend and first half of next week look to top out around or a few degrees above/below the freezing mark for highs across areas from around Mille Lacs MN to Rhinelander WI to the Soo.

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2021-22