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Seasonal
Outlook: Winter 2019/2020 (Released: October
28, 2019) I
am sure that close to all of you are familiar with my feelings on seasonal
weather forecasting, but for those of you that have not done so already, you
might want to check out my "Soap Box Speech on
Seasonal Weather Forecasting". The bottom line is, no one should be
making any serious decisions, such as buying/not buying a sled or gear based on
this or any outlook. As
usual, I am going to let the graphic do most of the talking and use the text to
fill in the details or speak about things that cannot be represented on the map.
The bottom line is that the other tools I use to produce my outlook are mixed.
None of them are exceptionally strong and all have also been fluctuating from
one thinking to the next over the past several months. Thus,
I see no strong reason to call for an exceptionally cold and snowy winter, nor
do I see a reason to call for an exceptionally warm and lower than average snow
winter. I
think for most of the northcentral US, it will be a winter that provides close
to average temps and snowfall. The NW and NE look to be warmer than average with
close to average snowfall. Before
I get into the regional breakdown, I would like to make a point. One
note that I want to make about “average” is that it does not mean average
for all of the season, but rather average for the season as a whole. It may mean
the first half is warmer with less snow than average and the second half is
colder and snowier than average. Or it could be the opposite. It could also be a
period of very cold and snowy, with the rest of the season less snowy and warmer
than average…or some combination there-as. Finally…Here is the breakdown by region: REGION
2 – The Southeast Midwest: The news for this region is fairly similar to
that of the neighbors to the NW. The main difference will be the absence of any
colder than average temperature anomaly. My only other note to make is that
folks should keep in mind what is actually average for their locale. Areas like
northern IL, southern WI and southern MI see an 45-55” of snow fall on
average. This does not typically lead to deep and lasting snowpack. Rather, it
leads to having enough snow to play in during the second half of January and
first half of February, sometimes longer if no major thaws occur. REGION
3 – The Northeast US: The forecast for this region is OK to the optimist
and poor to the pessimist. It looks like snowfall for the season as a whole will
run near average. The bad news is that temps look to run above. I do not expect
temps to run well above average, just a bit for the season as a whole. REGION
4 – The Northern Rockies: Most of this region looks to see above average
snowfall and below average temps occur for the winter as a whole. Like the NW
Midwest, it may not be a record year, but folks living and visiting this region
should not be disappointed for most of the winter. REGION
5 – The Central Rockies: This majority of the region looks to see temps
and snowfall run near average for the winter as a whole. The exceptions would be
in the far north and west, where areas like northern Utah could see above
average snows and below average temps. REGION
6 – The Pacific NW and Sierra Range: Most of this region will likely see
above average snowfall and above average temps. Like the other mountainous
regions, most of the snow-play is done in the higher terrain, so the above
average temps should not lead to
much melting and there will likely be plenty of snow fall to allow snow-play. REGION
7 – Eastern Canada: The story for eastern Ontario, most of Quebec and
the Maritime Provinces is pretty similar to the Northeast US. Thus, I believe
snowfall will be close to average for most areas and temps will run above
average. |
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