Forecast Text

lakevermiliontwoharborscountryinn

 

February 21, 2017

GENERAL PICTURE:

  • Rains finish up in the east today.
  • Significant snows in the central/north Feb 24-25.
  • Cold and snows for next week.

1-4 DAY FORECAST:

Rains will work through the eastern Midwest today, bringing mainly less than .20″ to areas SE of a line from St Louis to Alpena. The rest of the region will be dry today, as the air behind the front is drier. However, as mentioned yesterday, unlike the usual scenario where much colder air would fill in behind the precip, temps will remain mild for today and most of tomorrow and then begin to cool late tomorrow into Thursday.

A weak area of low pressure still looks to bring the potential for a few inches of snow to ND, northern MN and the NW UP Wednesday night into early Thursday. Most totals will be in the 1-2″ range with that activity.

The next low will be getting organized in KS as we go through the day on Thursday and then head into the Midwest for Friday.┬áThe models are in pretty good agreement on the details with that system and the ideas from yesterday have not changed, with the heaviest snow still indicated to fall in northern IA, SE MN, the northern 1/2 of WI and the western 3/4ths of the UP, where a solid 8-12″ looks to fall. Some areas of north central IA, SE MN and west central MN could see more than 12″ fall. Mainly light rains will fall to the SE of the snow area.

Temps will be running above freezing for highs in all of the Midwest through tomorrow, with the freeze line dipping into the extreme northern Midwest by Thursday and then a bit further south and east by Friday.

5-10 DAY FORECAST:

Cold air building in behind the storm will generate some LES for Saturday and Sunday. It does not look like a huge LES event will occur, but an additional 3-5″ looks to be a pretty good bet for the LES belts of the western UP from the Porkies to Copper Harbor and from Munising to Paradise. A couple of inches of LES will also likely fall in the LES belts of NWL MI later in the weekend.

The forecast for next week sees two more areas of low pressure to work through the Midwest. The models are still struggling a bit with the details to both of these systems, but each holds the potential to bring some light to moderate (1-5″) snows to the central Midwest by Monday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.

11-16 DAY FORECAST:

The forecast for this time frame now runs from March 2-7 and sees temps to be cold enough to preserve any snow on the ground from around I-80 north. As far as new snows go, there are no big storms seen, but opportunities for some light snows in those areas north of I-80, coupled with some moderate totals in the LES belts of the UP and NWL MI. So it appears as though winter is not over yet.

Click here for John Dee’s 2016-17 Seasonal Outlook

twinbayresortkse-rf