Forecast Text

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February 20, 2018

GENERAL PICTURE:

  • Winter weather in the north this week, water skipping in the south.
  • 5-10 day sees more winter weather in the north, wet in the south.
  • The 11-16 day period also sees the promise for snows in the north, with rains in the south.

1-4 DAY FORECAST:

Several weak to moderate strength systems will work through the Midwest in the next 4 days. One moved through yesterday and the next is moving through right now and will bring snows to the northwest Midwest, with rains in the south and a ribbon of mixed precip in between the two. I will continue to let the maps do the talking on placement of the precip type, but will say that snow totals look to be in the 1-2″ range in most cases, with some 2″+ totals possible in northern MN.

Things look to quiet back down in most of the region for tomorrow and then the next system looks to impact the Midwest for tomorrow night into Thursday and Friday. As things stand right now, the Thur-Fri system looks to bring a general 3-6″ of snow to much of the Northwoods, with some 6″+ totals possible in central MN, far NW WI and the western 2/3rds of the UP. More rains will fall in the SE 1/2 of the Midwest. see maps for more.

Temps will be running below average in the far western Midwest for the week ahead, with above average temps in much of MO, IL, IN, OH, MI and SE WI, with the freeze line running very close to a line running from Omaha to Green Bay to Alpena for the week.

5-10 DAY FORECAST:

Things look to quiet down in most of the region for Saturday, with another impulse of snow seen for NE IA, SE MN, much of WI and the UP by Sunday. Early estimates on amounts with that activity look to be in the 2-5″ range, with some 5″+ totals possible- especially in NE WI and the central UP.

The early part of next week looks to be fairly quiet, with some light to moderate snows possible with a clipper system across the Northwoods by the middle of next week.

Temps in this time frame look to run below average in MN, NW WI and the western UP, with above average temps in most of MO, IL, IN, OH and the southern 1/2 of lower MI. A thin area of average temps looks to occur between these two.

11-16 DAY FORECAST:

The forecast for this time frame sees the jetstream to remain out of the SW, with temps across the NW Midwest to run below average and temps in the SE Midwest to run above average. The pattern also looks to be active for precipitation, with snows falling in the NW and rains in the SE.

Click here for John Dee’s 2017-18 Seasonal Outlook